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With 85,000 Huskers fans draped in black, it was hard to tell where the crowd ended and the dark cloud over Memorial Stadium began on November 1 against USC.

Sitting at 6-3 with an eight-point halftime lead over the visiting No. 23 Trojans, all signs were pointing to a historic Nebraska victory, one that would end the damning 28-game losing streak to ranked opponents.

Running back Emmett Johnson was well on his way to another 100-yard outing. The offensive and defensive lines were winning at the lines of scrimmage, a rarity for the 2025 season. And sophomore Dylan Raiola, the former No. 1 overall quarterback in his class, was ready for his signature moment.

Then the unthinkable happened.

Raiola dropped back and evaded a blitzer to his right. The pocket soon collapsed, with a pair of Trojans sandwiching the sophomore signal-caller. He went down in a heap, writhing in pain with what would later be diagnosed as a broken fibula. He lay motionless on the Memorial Stadium surface for mere moments, but it must’ve felt like hours to onlookers. Trainers helped peel him off the turf. Raiola wrapped his left arm around a trainer and his right arm, ironically enough, around head coach Matt Rhule, who, for all intents and purposes, had wagered his future on the highest-rated recruit in program history, as he limped off the field.

In the moment, it felt like a damning blow to Rhule and the Cornhuskers’ progress in the 2025 season. In retrospect, it was much more than that.

There are layers to the Raiola family’s connection to the University of Nebraska. Dylan’s father, Dominic Raiola, was a Rimington Trophy-winning center for the Huskers under legendary coach Tom Osborne and later went on to have an illustrious NFL career with the Detroit Lions. His uncle, Donovan Raiola, had an impressive career at the University of Wisconsin and was the Cornhuskers’ offensive line coach for four seasons. And his little brother, three-star high school senior quarterback Dayton Raiola, had been committed to Nebraska for quite some time. 

Dylan Raiola’s family ties played a huge role in his decision to choose Nebraska over the likes of Ohio State and Georgia. 

But fast forward a few weeks after Dylan Raiola’s injury, and the cracks in the Raiola family-Nebraska foundation began to show. After the injury, Dylan’s little brother, Dayton, decommitted from Nebraska. Then speculation around Dylan’s future grew, with reports surfacing that the Nebraska program was bracing for him to test the transfer portal. At the conclusion of the season, Rhule made sweeping changes to his coaching staff, firing offensive line coach Donovan Raiola.

This apparent fracture in the Raiola family-Nebraska relationship has only fueled further speculation that Dylan Raiola might leave Lincoln. There’s always a chance he returns for his junior season, but at this point, it feels far from a certainty.

If Raiola does transfer out of Nebraska, the media and the fanbase will inevitably search for the fault line. Is Raiola a bust? Did he regress? Was the offensive line solely to blame?

College football is a sport that runs on feelings. The rivalries. The passion. The love for your school and the hatred for others.

But talent evaluation isn’t dictated by feelings. And a player’s success is often dictated by infrastructure. Using Hudl IQ data, I analyzed Raiola’s 2025 season, stripping away box scores and family drama. And what the data reveals is a five-star talent who was performing at a high level despite his circumstances. His numbers tell the story of a system that didn’t boost his value, and I believe that if he does transfer, the next school that gets him is receiving a polished, tough quarterback who is ready for the college football spotlight.

Hudl IQ is an advanced analytics platform used by college football programs to evaluate players, scout, and self-scout. It is not a public stats service. Hudl IQ is a next-gen level data and analytics platform that helps college football programs elevate their recruitment, game preparation, and self-scouting workflows.

To say that the Nebraska offensive line was bad at protecting the passer would be an understatement.

The Cornhuskers gave up nine sacks in a loss to Minnesota. In Week 4, Raiola was sacked seven times against Michigan. According to Huskers.com, Nebraska gave up 30 sacks for 202 yards through 12 games.

According to Hudl IQ, Nebraska left tackles gave up 14 pressures, while the right tackles gave up 22 pressures—both of which were above the Big Ten average. The middle of the offensive line (LG, Center, RG) held up better in pass protection, allowing just 21 pressures among the three positions.

Examining individual pressures is one thing. But what about line gap pressures? The Cornhuskers gave up almost 40 pressures near the edges of the line of scrimmage, presumably to edge rushers and outside blitzers. Translation: The offensive tackles did not hold up well under pressure.

What does this all mean for Raiola?

Raiola often did not have adequate time on passing plays. This directly impacted his ability to stand tall in the pocket, but perhaps more importantly, it impacted the Huskers’ ability to push the ball downfield. How do I know this?

According to cfb-graphs.com, Raiola’s Average Depth of Target (ADOT) was a paltry 6.00, good for 137th in college football. By comparison, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza finished the regular season with an ADOT of 8.59. These figures paint a vivid picture, showcasing that, because Raiola had less time to throw, he was unable to push the ball down the field, limiting the Cornhuskers’ passing game as a whole.

Despite being under constant pressure in the passing game, Raiola put up good efficiency numbers and was a leading driver in the Cornhuskers’ offensive success.

Raiola posted solid EPA/Pass (0.12), Completion % (72.4%), and Completion % Over Expectation (CPOE) (5.6%) figures despite facing constant pressure.

Now, if there is a critique about Raiola, it’s almost certainly centered around the idea that he did not throw the ball away frequently enough. Or that, at times, he trusted his arm too much and forced the ball into difficult windows. And to that? Fair enough. I think he could stand to improve in that department.

But Raiola wasn’t just a solid quarterback this season; he was a statistically efficient passer despite consistently facing pressure on pass attempts.

The 14-day college football transfer portal window is fast approaching. And while I don’t have a crystal ball, it feels like the writing is on the wall for Raiola to test the waters and explore a new home before next fall.

If he does transfer out of Lincoln, I can’t help but wonder what his legacy will be.

Raiola was the prince who was promised. He followed in his father’s footsteps and chose Nebraska over the likes of Ohio State and Georgia. The fanfare surrounding his arrival was unlike anything I could remember living in the state of Nebraska. His first game, back on August 31, 2024, against UTEP, felt as much like a coronation as it did the start of a college football season.

For Raiola, the transfer portal is not an escape route, but a strategic repositioning. If he does leave, he’ll surely be looking for a program that can properly support him—one that possesses a good offensive line, weapons on the outside, and that boasts a coordinator who can take him from good to great. In turn, they’ll receive an ultra-efficient passer with elite arm talent ready to elevate their ceiling.

The harsh reality is that nothing in life lasts forever. And the Raiola-Nebraska marriage appeared great until it wasn’t. He arrived in Lincoln as the prince who was promised. He appears to be on his way out in search of a new conquest.

In this episode, we take a step back and evaluate the college football coaching carousel with our good friend Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports, The Athletic, and The Audible podcast. We recorded with Bruce before the news about Sherrone Moore’s dismissal went public and focused on the drama surrounding Lane Kiffin's move to LSU, his biggest surprises during an active cycle, Lincoln Riley rumors, and much more. Plus, a discussion about Notre Dame's beef with the ACC and CFP.

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