Periodical cicadas spend an inordinate amount of time doing nothing that anyone can see. 

They don’t own a calendar. They don’t keep time at all. Scientists believe they count. Every spring, tree sap across the country briefly grows richer with amino acids, creating an enticing “spring elixir.” The cicadas tally each flush, and every 13 or 17 years (depending on the species), these special creatures emerge, together, all at once.

The 2026 LSU season has worked the same way. The losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky made the Tigers look like a team stuck below the surface. The advanced data paints a different picture. 

Quarterback Sam Leavitt and superweapon Trey’Dez Green are finally healthy. The defense is playing with clinical efficiency. Coach Lane Kiffin is pushing the right buttons, and suddenly the Tigers are peaking at the right time with a season-defining three-game stretch on the horizon.

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LSU has two losses by a combined nine points, sits 14th in the CFP Top 25, and might have the best odds of representing the SEC in the College Football Playoff as a three-loss team. 

The Tigers’ season has been anything but straightforward. But that’s the nature of the business in a place like Baton Rouge. 

Remember, last offseason, the LSU football program made headlines at every turn. Kiffin held Ole Miss hostage mid-CFP run for the illusion of a better future in Baton Rouge. He assembled one of the most expensive rosters the sport has ever seen, headlined by Leavitt, future NFL left tackle Jordan Seaton, and pass-rush aficionado Princewell Umanmielen. 

The season started with the Tigers evaporating Clemson in primetime in what felt like Dabo Swinney’s last stand. Then came the frostiest reunion in recent memory. LSU traveled to Oxford, Kiffin got out Kiffin’d by Pete Golding, and the King of Chaos was rendered powerless as his offense stalled out on the goal line in the game’s waning moments. 

LSU bounced back with wins over bad teams before taking a second loss, this time to SEC newcomer Will Stein, who stunned the Tigers with a dramatic two-point conversion call in overtime, sending shockwaves across the sport. 

Two games. Two late-game situations gone awry. In the blink of an eye, LSU went from dream start to nightmare, and its season hung in the balance. 

But lost in the shuffle of those two losses, the Tigers might’ve been building toward something no one could see coming. Like cicadas waiting their turn underground, the Tigers have quietly strung together a pair of encouraging performances, and suddenly have everything to play for with a season-defining stretch of games against Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee on the immediate horizon. 

The LSU defense is one of the best units in college football. How they’re obliterating opposing offenses might surprise you.

Through eight games, the Tigers’ defense is allowing 4.27 yards per play and 258.1 yards per game, and has given up just 13 offensive touchdowns, per NCAA.com. Those figures put LSU’s defense atop the SEC ranks two-thirds of the way through the season.

The advanced stats paint an even more pronounced picture, with LSU allowing 1.2 points per drive, 4.5 net yards per play, and a Play Success Percentage of 38.6%, all far below league average, per Hudl IQ. 

Perhaps the most interesting LSU defensive data points are the surprisingly low turnover and blitz rates. 

The Tigers’ defense has a Blitz Percentage of 22.6% and a Turnover Percentage of 8.1%, both below league average, per Hudl IQ. 

Most people associate great defenses with chaos and turnovers. LSU offers both in spurts, but the Tigers are playing some of the most beat-us-if-you-can, lockdown defense that we’ve seen in a long time. 

There’s still plenty of football to be played, but LSU’s transfer strategy of plucking superstars and letting them cook is paying off. Umanmielen has emerged as one of the nation’s best pass rushers. Former Boise State defensive back Ty Benefield has been integral in the secondary, too. With defensive coordinator Blake Baker calling the shots, the Tigers have one of the best units in college football and appear primed for monster matchups over the next three weeks.

LSU’s offense is currently operating at a high clip, with Leavitt doing a little bit of everything. 

Through eight games, LSU has tallied 321 total points, good for an average of 40.1 points per game, per NCAA.com. That puts the Tigers in elite company, just behind Oklahoma State, Georgia, Louisville, and Notre Dame. 

It should come as no surprise that Leavitt is the focal point of the offense. And although he’s had some difficult moments through spurts of poor play and injury, he appears to be healthy and peaking at the right time. 

Leavitt is averaging 0.33 expected points added/play and 0.28 EPA/Pass and has been successful on 57% of his passes, per Hudl IQ. He’s generating chunk pass plays on 20.4% of his completions and explosive pass plays 4.7% of the time, per Hudl IQ.

He’s not generating an exorbitant amount of chunk or explosive plays with his arm, especially compared to some of the quarterbacks Kiffin and OC Charlie Weis Jr. have previously coached, but he’s done an excellent job of keeping the Tigers’ passing game on schedule. And despite his limitations with big plays through the air, he’s more than making up for it on the ground.

Leavitt has been dynamite on the ground, averaging 0.51 EPA and 6.5 yards per rush, both above league average, per Hudl IQ. He’s already chipped in eight rushing touchdowns and is well on his way to having career-high rushing yards. 

His ability to stay healthy and keep drives alive with his legs will likely determine how well LSU performs over this crucial three-game stretch and the rest of the season. He’s one of college football’s greatest X-factors, and when he’s fit and firing, the LSU offense can torment any defense in college football. 

Even cicadas get it wrong sometimes. The ones that miscount tend to show up off-schedule. LSU might arrive with an ear-shattering emergence at the perfect moment, or a little too soon. 

The numbers suggest that the Tigers have been adding up to something for weeks. The next three Saturdays will tell us if the math checks out.

College Football Week 10 might be the biggest weekend of the entire 2026 season. Seven ranked matchups, massive College Football Playoff implications, and a Saturday schedule that barely gives us a chance to catch our breath. We're making our picks for all of it.

We start with the Holy War between BYU and Utah, then work our way through Texas-Missouri, Alabama-LSU, Oregon-Ohio State and Kentucky-Tennessee. Can Alabama's offense survive a trip to Death Valley? Is Oregon ready to spring an upset in Columbus? And can Kentucky keep finding ways to win?

Then come two monster night games. Georgia visits Ole Miss for a showdown with Trinidad Chambliss, while No. 1 Miami travels to Notre Dame for the latest installment of Catholics vs. Convicts. With the Irish facing a potentially defining moment for their playoff hopes, there's plenty to unpack before we make our predictions.

Plus, we react to the first College Football Playoff rankings, tackle the rest of the weekend's schedule with our Quadfathers picks, spotlight some under-the-radar matchups, and more.

(And we're giving away a $500 Delta Air Lines gift card in this week's Run the Board pick'em contest.)

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