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Four weeks into the college football season, former Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula (now at Missouri) has outplayed current Penn State quarterback Drew Allar by almost every advanced metric, despite playing a vastly superior schedule.

Pribula leads Allar in the following metrics:

Allar, surprisingly, edges out Pribula in Yards/Rush and EPA/Rush, but my larger point still stands. 

Now, to contradict my own theory, there certainly is a chance that some of Allar’s lack of production is by design. The Nittany Lions have been untested in their first three games. They feature a run-heavy offense thanks to star backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. And perhaps offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is just saving the good stuff for high-profile matchups.

All that said, I think the comparison is worth exploring. 

On Saturday, all eyes will be on the behemoth matchup in Happy Valley featuring No. 6 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State. That means all eyes will also be on Allar, who, up until this point, hasn’t exactly knocked our socks off in big games.

Against a Top 5-ranked Ohio State in 2024, Allar was 12-for-20 for 146 yards and one interception. In last year’s College Football Playoff Semifinal against Notre Dame, Allar produced a very similar stat line. He finished the game 12-of-23 for 135 yards and one interception, notably failing to complete a single pass to a wide receiver. 

Perhaps Penn State will prove a point at home against what appears to be a worthy challenger in Oregon. And maybe Allar will finally break through in a big game. But if he doesn’t start showing out on the big stage, these very same whispers I’m posing today will only grow louder, especially as Pribula and Missouri quietly look like an SEC contender. 

2024 Garrett Nussmeier was a sports car hitting the open highway, exhibiting speed, acceleration, and an element of reckless abandon. A few times per game, he'd uncork a ball so beautiful, so awe-inspiring, you could see why NFL scouts were salivating over his arm talent. 

This fall, however, he feels like he's driving the same car with the handbrake on. 

He's no longer forcing the ball, which, in theory, might be a good thing. But he's also no longer doing the things that made both he and this LSU offense special. Even with a reconfigured receiving corps, Nuss and this offense can't seem to get going. What gives?

I think an element of LSU's offensive woes starts with Nussmeier. He's playing far more conservatively in 2025. Instead of letting it fly, he's opting for checkdowns and underneath routes. He looks more the part of a high upside game manager than he does the classic gunslinger he was last season.

Nussmeier aside, LSU still can't consistently run the ball. Part of this is on the new-look offensive line. There's talent there, but for one reason or another, it hasn't improved from last year's poor rushing numbers.

A more conservative Nussmeier + a non-factor running game = an offense currently ranked 77th in college football. If it weren't for Blake Baker's defense being lights-out, this team would be in serious trouble. And even then, it still might be.

On Saturday, LSU travels to Oxford to take on a high-flying Ole Miss offense. The Tigers' defense is good, but I have a hard time thinking LSU will win this game off strong defense alone. 

The Tigers got away with a conservative approach against Clemson. They did so again against Florida. In this instance, the third time isn't the charm. LSU better release the handbrake or be prepared to take its first loss of the season against Ole Miss.

Nothing summed up the 2024 Jayden Maiava Experience quite like the juxtaposition between the Nebraska and Notre Dame games. 

Against Nebraska, Maiava wowed with his arm talent, slicing and dicing a good Husker defense for 250 yards and a trio of touchdowns that pushed the Trojans into the win column. Versus the Notre Dame defense, he forced balls, played off-schedule, and tossed a pair of back-breaking late interceptions.

In 2024, Maiava was a give-and-take quarterback. So far this season, he’s done nothing but give Trojans fans the belief that he can be the guy to lift USC into the College Football Playoff discussion.

This season, he’s been excellent, zipping passes with precision, commanding the offense with ease, and playing with a sense of calm he rarely exhibited nine months ago. Through four weeks, Maiava has amassed over 1,200 passing yards, nine touchdowns, zero interceptions, has completed over 70% of his passes, and has the highest QB rating in college football, according to ESPN. If it weren’t for USC’s lackluster schedule thus far, I think Maiava would be on the receiving end of a lot more positive attention. 

On Saturday, the newly ranked USC Trojans will travel to Champaign to take on an Illinois team still licking its wounds after getting clobbered in primetime. If Maiava keeps playing at a high level, the Trojans have a shot at making some College Football Playoff noise. 

Don’t believe me? If (big if, to be fair) the Trojans get past Illinois, the schedule is shaping up mighty nicely to make waves. After Illinois, USC has big games against Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Oregon down the stretch. But with the way a few of those teams are shaping up, it’s not inconceivable to picture a one or two-loss Trojan team being a viable CFP candidate. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

With a jam-packed Week 5 slate, it’d be easy to overlook Ohio State’s trip to Seattle to take on Washington.

The Buckeyes have played nearly flawless football and are equipped with arguably the best defense in college football. Freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has looked solid. And Ryan Day teams don’t usually slip up in conference play against unranked teams.

But if you can find the time on Saturday, this one might be worth tuning into, if only to check out Demond Williams Jr., Washington’s quarterback. He’s quietly off to a good start in his first as a full-time QB1. He’s thrown six touchdowns, run for three more, and is completing almost 75% of his pass attempts. At 5’11” tall, he’s got a little Kyler Murray to his game—and I’m willing to bet he could ask a few probing questions of the Ohio State defense. 

It would be a bold claim to predict an upset. I won’t do that here. But I do think Williams Jr. is the real deal, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Huskies keep it close against the defending national champs. 

On Saturday, the 17th-ranked Crimson Tide will travel to Athens for a monster tilt against Georgia. Last year's version of this game was arguably the game of the year. This week, it's perhaps the biggest game on a slate that includes numerous big games. 

Instead of diving into the specifics of the game against Georgia, I'd like to complete a little schedule game thought exercise. Staring at Alabama's remaining schedule, the Tide's margin is razor-thin. With Georgia looming and a grueling slate still ahead, Saturday feels less like a midseason matchup and more like a College Football Playoff eliminator for Kalen DeBoer's Alabama.

If Alabama knocks off Georgia, it'll be a statement win, one that could carry DeBoer off the hot seat and vault the Tide back into elite contender status. But if Alabama loses, I'm not sure I see a path forward into the CFP conversation.

After the mega-tilt against Georgia, Alabama has home games against No. 18 Vanderbilt, No. 15 Tennessee, No. 4 LSU, and No. 7 Oklahoma, plus road games against No. 20 Missouri, South Carolina, and Auburn. That remaining schedule is going to feel like walking barefoot across hot coals, no break, just pain management. 

Maybe Alabama will make a statement on Saturday. And maybe this discussion will be all for naught. But if the Crimson Tide fall short, they'll find themselves in an incredibly deep hole, one that they might not be able to dig out of. 

Week 5 is absolutely loaded with monster games, and we're headed to Happy Valley for the Penn State-Oregon whiteout! In this episode, we take another deep dive into the three biggest matchups of the weekend: Oregon at Penn State in what promises to be an electric atmosphere, Alabama traveling to Georgia in a crucial SEC showdown, and LSU heading to Oxford to face Ole Miss in another must-watch conference battle.

Beyond those headliners, we wonder if Ohio State might be in danger at Washington, whether USC can prove they're for real on the road at Illinois, if Notre Dame can stop Taylen Green, and if Auburn is trapped in perpetual limbo after another close loss. We also examine Indiana's statement opportunity at Iowa and dive into several intriguing home underdogs.

We also take a look at the latest news with Mike Gundy's sudden dismissal at Oklahoma State and John Mateer's thumb injury potentially sidelining Oklahoma's quarterback for up to a month.

Finally, we break down our Under the Radar Games worth watching, map out your optimal afternoon viewing quad for maximum entertainment, and identify the small window of opportunity to get errands done before the day's best action kicks off.

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