Conference Realignment Chaos, My Crazy ND What-If & Vikes History

1) The Pac-12’s media proposal was… not great, Bob

After months of delays, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was finally forced to present the media deal that he’s been diligently negotiating with potential media partners. The meeting on Tuesday morning came after Colorado up and left the conference late last week, setting off a shockwave around college sports.

Though the full details of Kliavkoff’s proposal aren’t known, reports from multiple sources indicate that members of the Pac-12 would make around $20 million annually as part of a streaming deal with Apple. For context, that’s about $17 million less than Pac-12 schools earned from 2021-22 and obviously less exposure than a deal with a more traditional cable partner. The proposal would feature escalators that could drive the payout higher based on how many subscriptions are sold.

TL; DR, this isn’t gonna work. I don’t blame Kliavkoff, either. In this case, he never had a chance. USC and UCLA’s sudden move to the Big Ten kneecapped the value of the conference’s TV inventory, and it didn’t help that his predecessor, Larry Scott, was a notoriously poor shepherd for the league and its finances. Where Kliavkoff could’ve done better, it seems, is in the communication department. This process dragged on far too long without indications that the terms were getting any better.

2) Arizona, Arizona State and Utah are probably next

As I mentioned last week, the next school to watch is Arizona, which has a board of regents meeting scheduled this evening. By week’s end, I’m expecting the school to formally announce a move to the Big 12, which will set off the domino effect that eventually kills the Pac-12. Arizona State would almost certainly follow Arizona; Utah would begrudgingly join to avoid being left out. Whether this is announced all at once remains to be seen, but the writing is on the wall. It’s happening.

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3) Oregon and Washington (and Cal and Stanford) to the Big Ten?

With the Pac-12 looking more like the Pac-6, Oregon and Washington, are considering their own contingencies with the Big Ten. There is no question that both schools would jump at the invitation. Washington just scheduled a special meeting for tonight that miiiiight have a few things to discuss.

The situation with the Big Ten is extremely nuanced. The conference does not need to expand simply because Oregon and Washington are looking for a new home. Per our friend Matt Brown, the conversation around both schools has been ongoing since last summer. Matt emphasizes that this is not a new conversation for Big Ten brass.

The more interesting angle is how the addition of Cal and Stanford could benefit the conference. It’s no secret that there will be enormous travel challenges when USC and UCLA join up in 2024. Though adding two other West Coast teams (Oregon and Washington) would help allay those logistics, adding a total of four West Coast teams (Oregon and Washington + Cal and Stanford), would actually make travel and scheduling much easier. In that sense, expanding up to 20 teams is more feasible than 18. Can I interest anyone in the “Big Tens?”

(As always, I’d strongly recommend reading our friend Matt Brown from the Extra Points newsletter, who did a fabulous job breaking down the calculus.)

4) Florida State is also getting antsy

Meanwhile, Florida State has chugged even more ACC Haterade and stepped up its war of words against its existing deal with the conference, which runs through 2036. University officials have been vocal about the way the conference distributes revenue and, more broadly, the growing money gap between the ACC and richer leagues like the Big Ten and SEC.

I’ve joked in this space that college football has entered its Dumb Money Era. I wasn’t kidding. To leave the ACC, it would cost Florida State about $120 million in exit fees plus whatever comes of a lengthy court battle. The crazy part is that it still could be a worthwhile investment if the school would make considerably more revenue with a new conference. To that end, which other schools in the ACC could afford that kind of scratch to tunnel out from behind the existing agreement?

Which conference? Conventional wisdom is that Florida State makes sense as an SEC school, given its location, culture, etc. Despite that, I’ve heard repeatedly that the Big Ten was interested.

Also, Drew Weatherford being a trustee is not fair and makes me feel really old.

5) Finally, what’s the deal with Notre Dame?

This is the part of the newsletter where toss more wild speculation into the fray. I’ve hinted for a while that, despite strong public comments in favor of football independence, Notre Dame was more open to conference affiliation than many would think. I still believe that, hence the reason I’m still brainstorming ridiculous hypotheticals.

My pet “what-if” scenario sees the Big Ten expanding to 24 teams, with Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford joining from the Pac-12 and Florida State and Notre Dame joining from the ACC / pseudo-ACC. It’d be a win-win for the Irish. Last month, Dennis Dodd reported that the school was targeting something in the $75 million range when it negotiates its next media deal, which the school could almost certainly achieve in the Big Ten. Plus, with an influx of new conference members in 2024, most of Notre Dame’s favorite opponents and rivals would be in one place. It could play the national schedule it desires and fully optimize its payout at once. Plus, given the NBC’s new tie-in with the Big Ten, it stands to reason that the transition, at least on the media side, would be pretty straightforward.

I emphasize that the theory above is based on my own realignment fever dreams, so take it with a grain of salt. But if college football is gonna break, let’s at least make it interesting. Who’s with me?

✍️ Others Receiving Votes

We celebrate the entire catalog of Jon Bois and Alex Rubenstein in these parts. Here’s their latest vid, taking a look at the history of the Minnesota Vikings:

Here’s a question: Where does grounded electric actually go? Good question:

Steph Curry on Hot Ones was pretty awesome:

WHAT'S GOOD IN THE VERBALLERHOOD?

Despite all the realignment talk, we actually have a season to get ready for. This week, we rolled on with our ACC and Big Ten previews.

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