🚨Colorado bolts for the Big 12?!

🚨Colorado bolts for the Big 12?!

I’ve done my best to read the tea leaves over the last six months, trying to understand the importance of the Pac-12’s ongoing media rights negotiations and sometimes wondering whether I was making a mountain out of a mole hill. We got our answer on Wednesday evening as reports surfaced that Colorado was leaving for the Big 12, per Action Network’s Brett McMurphy and others in the know.

There was a hint that something big was imminent. Those of us that cover college sports traded hushed messages all week as speculation ran wild about the Buffaloes making a move. Unlike most of the rumors to date, these actually came true. Colorado will join the Big 12 in 2024 and receive a full share from the conference’s media deal with ESPN and Fox, which comes out to around $31.7 million.

The money is likely to be better than staying in the Pac-12. However, the real benefit of being a first-mover is the added stability of a safer conference. I don’t think Colorado was ever in danger of being relegated to a non-power league, even in the wildest realignment scenarios, but I know that the administration was tired of waiting around for George Kliavkoff to find a media partner. Why risk a smaller payday or sign up for a few more years of conference instability if you don’t have to?

The bigger question now shifts to the potential domino effect of the move. Which schools might be next? Conventional wisdom has always been that the so-called “Corner Schools” (Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah) would have a home in the Big 12 should the Pac-12 disintegrate. That’s not to say that any of them wanted to jump ship. A few months back, Utah’s athletic director seemed less than thrilled by the idea.

But situations change. My money is on Arizona making the next move. The Big 12 is rumored to be courting the likes of UConn to join up and form a basketball superconference. Obviously, the Wildcats would be a natural fit from that standpoint. And, of course, more teams leaving would only further destabilize the Pac-12.

Meanwhile, I’d imagine the biggest brands in the conference — Oregon and Washington — are feverishly making calls. In theory, a slimmed down Pac-12 could quickly add teams like San Diego State and SMU to beef back up and keep the band together. But the issue is less about which teams are left and more about the payouts. Even if Oregon and Washington were forced to take an unequal revenue share in the Big Ten, it’d still offer an element of stability that seems impossible in the current Pac-9. And the payout might still be better.

I also feel bad for schools like Oregon State and Washington State in the event that the conference fully dismantles. Neither offers much of a television market to potential media partners. My guess is that both are the biggest Pac-12 cheerleaders at the moment. Don’t even get me started on Cal and Stanford.

And finally, what is the impact beyond the Pac-12 and Big 12? Could half of the ACC rise up and try to overthrow its grant of rights deal with ESPN? Earlier this year, Florida State’s administration seemed more than willing to poke the bear. Might Notre Dame re-evaluate its position on football independence? The Irish are reportedly looking to triple their media deal when it comes time to renegotiate. It’s officially the Dumb Money Era of college football, and anything is possible.

For what it’s worth, we did our best to react to the news and offer insight on this emergency podcast:

While we’re on the subject of the Pac-12, it’s also worth noting that we started our 2023 conference previews this week. Our focus this year is on the fascinating things about each conference. So far, we made it through the Pac-12 and Big 12. Next week, it’ll be the ACC and Big Ten.

Interestingly, our Big 12 preview episode just dropped this morning. I promise you that we didn’t plan on dropping these two conferences side-by-side.

Oh, and finally, we launched a fun new game called Grand Total over at Verballers.com. The goal is simple: pick the over/unders for all 69 Power 5 teams and compete against the Verballerhood for fabulous prizes. More info here: